![]() ![]() If Australia had a laxer approach and as a result had the same per capita deaths as the US, it would have lost an extra 47,000 Australians on top of the 910 deaths so far. ![]() So, thanks to a sensible health response, rigorous application of restrictions and periodic snap lockdowns after the initial lockdown we have been able to keep cases and deaths per capita relatively low.īetter control of the virus has enabled much of Australia to go about life with relatively modest restrictions over much of the last year in contrast to many countries that have seen almost continuous lockdowns, with some only just coming out of them.Įven countries that adopted a laxer approach such as the US or a “let it rip” approach like Sweden saw a bigger hit to their economies than Australia did. The occurrence of “long covid”, potential long-term health effects even in the young and now more transmissible variants reinforce this. Early last year I also thought it may be a bad case of flu, but quickly changed my mind in March last year when it was clear that it was far worse and if not controlled, the hospital system would be overwhelmed leading to more deaths. The first thing to note is that Australia has performed relatively well through the coronavirus pandemic. This note puts it into perspective and what it means for investors. And being early in the vaccination process – both globally and in Australia – it’s still too early to simply relax controls. High on the list is: the slow rollout of vaccines the management of the returned traveller quarantine system the poor treatment of Australians overseas (particularly those recently in India) and we arguably have been too slow in relation to starting some lockdowns (in Victoria mid-last year and recently in NSW) risking longer lockdowns.īut gloomy as it all seems, Australia’s approach has led to relatively less deaths and a stronger economy. Some even think the lockdowns themselves are the problem – that Australia has become paranoid, going into lockdown & shutting borders at the whiff a new case, locking out the rest of the world and becoming a “lost kingdom of the South Pacific” – imposing a great cost on the economy all to control what some think poses no or little risk for most, or is just a bad dose of the flu.Īustralia has made some mistakes. With ongoing lockdowns, it seems like ground hog day. And this follows around a $1.5bn hit from Victoria’s two-week lockdown from late May. ![]() Perth’s four-day lockdown will cost another $200m and Queensland’s three-day lockdown another $300m. With Sydney and surrounds having around 6.6 million people and about 25% of Australian GDP we estimate a hit to national economic activity from the two-week Sydney lockdown of around $2 billion (or 0.1% of GDP). And now Perth & Darwin are in lockdowns too. Or far worse still for those with businesses dependent on people coming together. And I am not in Victoria which has had it even worse over the last year, and I can only imagine how bad this must be for those looking forward to school holidays. It got even more depressing when the whole of Sydney and surrounds was put into a two-week lockdown on Saturday. News that I and many others were effectively in lockdown from Friday was depressing. ![]()
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